On 11 November, we had the pleasure of listening to Patrick Pearsall and Joann Spadiagm discuss the implications of the U.S. election during a lunch event in collaboration with NatWest and Nordisk Renting.

Joann, strategist from NatWest, set the tone of the lunch while discussion the financial perspective of the outcome of the US election. She mentioned tax cuts, tariffs, inflation and she predicted a damping impact on the global economy.

Patrick, partner at A&O Shearman, followed by discussing the geopolitical perspective of the election. He talked about the shift in the US public opinion which has contributed to Trump being able to capture all key swing states as well as the popular vote. With a supportive cabinet, a probable congressional majority, and no need to seek re-election, Trump may have more room to shape policy in his second term.

For the UK, Sweden, and other nations, the economic impact is likely to centre on trade and tariffs. Patrick notes that Trump’s administration aims to achieve trade surpluses with allied nations and may impose tariffs on key exports from countries like the Nordics. For example, Denmark’s pharmaceuticals, Norway’s refined petroleum, and Sweden’s cars, vaccines, and sawn wood could face new tariffs. He also stated that Trump’s approach to Chinese goods, already highly tariffed, could drive inflation further, affecting the U.S. and global economy. This may prompt cheap Chinese goods to seek alternative markets, something countries outside the US may need to prepare for. Patrick also recommends caution for companies with supply chains tied to China.

Trump’s approach to foreign policy could also be transformative. Patrick notes that while Trump has indicated he may not directly intervene if China were to act against Taiwan, he has suggested imposing tariffs as high as 200%, effectively setting a “price” on Taiwan for China to consider. Patrick also anticipates that Trump will likely move toward ending the conflict in Ukraine but possibly in ways that might not benefit Europe. He predicts a potential deal that could involve ceding Donbass and Crimea to Russia and guaranteeing Ukraine will not join NATO, leaving open questions about Ukraine’s stability and the broader regional impact after a deal with Putin.

We would like to thank our speakers for their valuable insights, and for fostering a meaningful discussion as we consider the future implications of a new Trump administration. We would also like to thank everyone who attended and our collaboration partners, NatWest and Nordisk Renting, who made this event possible.