Trends With: Alex Tivelius

The world is in an ‘energy addition’ phase of the energy transition in which it is consuming increasing amounts of both low carbon energy and fossil fuels. The challenge is to move – for the first time in history – to an ‘energy substitution’ phase, in which low carbon energy increases sufficiently quickly to allow the consumption of fossil fuels, and with that carbon emissions, to decline‎.

The war in Ukraine has heightened the focus on ensuring energy security and affordability while advancing the Paris climate goals. This renewed attention may drive greater efforts to improve energy efficiency and expand domestic energy production. Additionally, it could lead to increased government involvement in shaping and managing energy markets. Examples include the rising influence of green industrial policies and a stronger focus on securing energy supply chains.

As a sector – aviation will increase over the outlook as global economic activity rises, with the use of oil-based products increasingly displaced by lower carbon alternatives. Technologies such as SAF (Sustainable Air Fuel) can help reduce the lifecycle carbon emissions compared with the conventional jet fuel it replaces.  We see sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as the most viable option to help decarbonize aviation. We see great opportunities in the scale-up of SAF – Air bp, bp’s aviation fueling business, was the first operator to start the commercial supply of SAF through an existing airport fueling system in 2016, at Norway’s Oslo airport. Globally, we’ve now supplied more than 30 locations with SAF. There is real commitment from the industry to reduce carbon emissions, and governments also need to create the right policies to accelerate the growth of SAF.