19. The Policy Watch

The Policy Watch is a weekly update which aims to provide concise insights into the current policy landscape. Tailored for our members and individuals interested in international affairs, this update offers a brief yet comprehensive summary of key developments affecting policy decisions and political trends in the UK, Sweden, and the EU.

MASSIVE ELECTION BLOW FOR THE TORIES IN LOCAL ELECTIONS

As the results of the local elections on 2 May have been confirmed, the ‘Tories’ suffered their worst results since 1990. The Conservative Party lost 397 councillors’ seats, while Labour (+232), Liberal Democrats (+98), and the Greens (+64) all gained seats. The Tories also lost control of 10 local Councils, 4 of which were lost to Labour, and the mayorship over West Midlands after the Labour Party’s Richard Parker marginal win over sitting Conservative mayor Andy Street.

LABOUR SECURES BLACKPOOL SOUTH IN RESOUNDING BY-ELECTION VICTORY

Labour won the Blackpool South seat from the Conservatives in the by-election. Chris Webb secured a 26.3% swing, surpassing the Tories’ previous majority of 3,690 votes.

The Conservative candidate, David Jones, narrowly avoided being overtaken by Reform UK’s Mark Butcher, trailing by only 117 votes, in an election triggered by former Tory MP Scott Benton’s resignation.

JOHN SWINNEY SET TO BECOME SCOTLAND’S NEXT FIRST MINISTER

John Swinney, a seasoned politician within the Scottish National Party (SNP), is poised to become the new First Minister after being chosen as the SNP’s new leader on Monday. Swinney ran unopposed after both main rivals, Kate Forbes and Graeme McCormick, dropped out of the nomination race.

Swinney, who previously served as SNP leader from 2000 to 2004 and acted as deputy first minister to Nicola Sturgeon during the Covid pandemic, aims to unite the party after last year’s divisive leadership election. He has also stated that he does not intend to reinstate the power-sharing Bute House Agreement with the Scottish Greens – the termination of which led to Mr Yousaf’s resignation. Instead, he aims to lead a “moderate centre-left” minority government.

UK GOVERNMENT’S CLIMATE STRATEGY RULED UNLAWFUL BY HIGH COURT FOR SECOND TIME

The High Court has ruled the Government’s climate strategy unlawful for the second time, upholding four of the five legal challenges brought by campaign groups, including Friends of the Earth, ClientEarth, and the Good Law Project. The court found that the Government’s Carbon Budget Delivery Plan relied too heavily on future technologies and did not adequately address the risk of failing to meet targets.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has defended the Government’s track record, stating they had decarbonised faster than any other major economy.

PM KRISTERSSON CONFIRMS INTELLIGENCE WARNINGS ABOUT RUSSIAN SABOTAGE PLOTS ACROSS EUROPE

According to the Financial Times, European intelligence agencies have alerted their governments to Russia’s plans for violent acts of sabotage across the continent as it commits to a course of permanent conflict with the West. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson later confirmed this, stating that he had received similar information.

According to the article in Financial Times, which cites intelligence officials, Russia has begun actively preparing covert bombings, arson attacks, and infrastructure damage on European soil both directly and through proxies. Evidence is mounting of a more aggressive and concerted effort by the Kremlin’s agents, with intelligence officials becoming increasingly vocal about the threat to promote vigilance.

SWEDISH ECONOMY CONTRACTS FOR FOURTH CONSECUTIVE QUARTER

Sweden’s economy contracted by 0.1% in the first quarter, marking the fourth straight quarter of decline, according to preliminary estimates from Statistics Sweden. The data shows that the interest cuts have not yet spurred economic activity.

SOCIALIST EU-CANDIDATE HOSPITALISED AFTER CAMPAIGN POSTER ATTACK

Matthias Ecke, the leading Socialist candidate in Saxony for June’s European Parliament election, was hospitalised and required surgery after being attacked by a group of four young men while putting up campaign posters in Dresden, according to a statement by his party. The assault, which left Ecke seriously injured, is currently under investigation by the state criminal police office’s violent crimes task force. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) blamed supporters of the far-right party Alliance for Germany (AfD) for the attack, stating that it reflects an alarming trend of intimidation targeting democratic values.

GEORGIA PASSES LAW THAT COULD JEOPARDISE THE EU-ACCESSION PROCESS

Despite widespread public outcry and warnings that the move could jeopardise the country’s EU aspirations, Georgian lawmakers have approved contentious legislation that would classify Western-funded civil society groups as foreign agents. The bill, which passed with a vote of 83-23 during a second plenary session, has sparked massive protests in the capital, Tbilisi, with authorities resorting to pepper spray and water cannons to disperse demonstrators outside the national assembly.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned the violence, urging Georgia to remain on the path towards European integration. Meanwhile, Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili, in opposition to the law, called for peaceful protests to continue on Rustaveli Avenue, away from the parliament building. The legislation, which still requires a third vote to become law, is expected to pass easily given the ruling Georgian Dream party’s majority.

EU-NEW ZEALAND TRADE AGREEMENT ENTERS INTO FORCE

On 1 May, the trade agreement between the European Union and New Zealand entered into force, thus strengthening the EU’s relations with a like-minded country in the economically dynamic Indo-Pacific region. The agreement is anticipated to increase trade between the EU and New Zealand by 30%, with the removal of tariffs estimated to save businesses €140 million annually. Additionally, the agreement is expected to boost EU investment flows into New Zealand by over 80%, providing significant economic opportunities for companies, farmers, and consumers. The deal also underscores the commitment to the Paris Climate Agreement and core labour rights, with provisions for trade sanctions as a last resort.

The EU is New Zealand’s third-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade in goods reaching almost €9.1 billion in 2022.