3 months with the Brexit Agreement: Insights to a new economic relationship

With Erik Lagerlöf, of Vinge Advokatbyrå, and Henrik von Sydow, of Carnegie Investment Bank

Introduction

Erik Lagerlöf is a lawyer at Vinge Advokatbyrå with expertise in EU Competition and Regulatory law, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Brexit. Erik is also an Adjunct Professor at the Stockholm School of Economics and has previous experience as visiting scholar at Harvard Law School and St Edmund’s College, and from serving at the Court of Justice of the European Union.

Henrik von Sydow is an external strategist at Carnegie Investment Bank. With a Master of Laws degree and previous experience as Chairman of Committee on Taxation in the Swedish Parliament and as a financial journalist at the Swedish financial newspaper Dagens Industri, Henrik has extensive experience and knowledge within his field.

Structure of the EU-UK TCA, with Erik Lagerlöf

The agreement has a set of common and institutional provisions, including:

• Good faith
• Interpretation in accordance with VCLT
• No direct effect

A FTA on Trade, including:

• Services
• Transport
• Social Security Co-ordination
• Visas
• Fisheries

Law enforcement and judicial co-operation in criminal matters

Thematic co-operation (health and cyber security)

Participation in union programmes, sound financial management, financial provisions

Annexes and protocols

Other Brexit Agreement Texts, with Erik Lagerlöf

This deal will be reviewed in 5 years (around the time of the next UK General Election)

EU-UK agreements concerning security procedures for exchanging and protecting classified information

EU-UK agreements for co-operation on the safe and peaceful uses of nuclear energy

The end to freedom of movement between the UK and EU

Changes in legal procedures

UK Outlook, with Henrik von Sydow

The UK economic recovery looks set to be ‘V-shaped’ which is partly due to the successful vaccine rollout

There are signs of a negative impact from the new economic relationship:

• UK exports to the EU dropped 40% in the month of January but “rebounded strongly” in February
• A temporary collapse in the UK food exports to Europe

Businesses, historically, are always quick to adapt to new rules

The new EU-UK relationship could be considered quite confrontational and also there have been criticisms of the UK from European leaders around vaccinations

The new normal should likely be considered more frictional

Politics, with Henrik von Sydow and Henrik Lagerlöf

The long-term outlook for the UK is less optimistic than the short-term

Threats to the UK are:

• A second Scottish Independence Referendum
• Growing unrest in Northern Ireland
• Reduced share trading in London

The UK is no longer a rule taker and will not be dictated to by Germany or France

If the UK had been in the EU: the COVID package would not have happened

There is now more pressure on Sweden to join the Eurozone

Our thanks go to Erik Lagerlöf, from Advotkatfirman Vinge, and Henrik von Sydow, of Carnegie Investment Bank, for hosting this event with the BSCC.